Predictions & Sources (11)
| Source | Claim | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BIS (Bank for International Settlements) | AI boom scale and speed warrant caution; capex outpacing cash flow; opaque circular financing | Annual Economic Report 2026 | open |
| IMF (International Monetary Fund) | Stretched equity valuations; 'disorderly correction' risk has risen | Oct 2025 statement | open |
| Bank of England FPC | Sharp market correction if AI excitement fades or adoption disappoints | Oct 2025 FPC minutes | open |
| Banque de France | Concentration of money in and between AI companies is a risk | Dec 2025 report | open |
| Michael Burry (Scion / Cassandra Unchained) | AI bubble pops in 2027; hyperscalers overstate profits by extending server/GPU useful lives | Substack post | open |
| Jeremy Grantham (GMO) | We are in a US stock market and AI bubble; a major correction will eventually follow | GMO January 2026 letter | open |
| Ray Dalio | Bubble signals at ~80% of 1929 and 2000 extremes; pop needs a trigger (long rates, mega-IPOs) | Diary of a CEO podcast | open |
| JPMorgan Cembalest (Eye on the Market) | 42 AI companies drove 65-75% of S&P500 earnings since 2022; concentration risk; possible Metaverse moment | 2026 Outlook: Smothering Heights | open |
| JPMorgan Hunter (Technical Strategy) | SOX +87% YTD while Microsoft -18% = same divergence as 1999-2000 | TheStreet, Aug 2026 note | open |
| Goldman Sachs | AI now propping up S&P earnings growth; fragile dependency on hyperscaler capex | Sep 2026 report | open |
| Morgan Stanley | AI capex rising $800B (2026) → $1.1T (2027); cycle still expanding; shift from infra to software | Sep 2026 outlook | open |
Triggers Armed (5)
| Trigger | What to watch | Source feeds |
|---|---|---|
| Hyperscaler capex cut high | Any of MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN cuts AI capex guidance or shortens useful lives in 10-Q | |
| Mega-IPO filing (SpaceX / Anthropic / OpenAI) high | Any of SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI files S-1 or announces IPO | |
| New central bank AI warning medium | BIS, IMF, BoE, BdF, ECB, Fed publishes a new AI-bubble warning (publication, speech, or report) | |
| 10Y Treasury move > 25bp in 7 days medium | US 10-year yield moves more than 25 basis points in a 7-day window | |
| SOX / Mag-7 divergence flip high | Philadelphia Semiconductor Index underperforms the Magnificent-7 basket by >5% over 5 days, after a year of outperformance |
Recent Events
- BIS-hosted conference Oct 1 2026: Lagarde + Bundesbank both raised AI financial-stability risksLagarde: 'rising importance of AI puts the system-wide view to the test' at ESRB 10th Annual Conference. Bundesbank's Köhler-Geib called for EU 'AI Airbus'. Fed's Waller warned on AI cyber risk in payments. Not new bubble calls, but fresh official concern.
- No capex cut yet — $725B hyperscaler capex reaffirmed Oct 11Oct 11 2026 earnings: MSFT + META + GOOGL + AMZN 2026 capex guidance now ~$725B. Bears Burry and Grantham still waiting on this trigger to fire. Status: NOT YET TRIGGERED.
- Trigger t2 (mega-IPO) fired earlier this year — RE-CONFIRMEDSpaceX S-1 on EDGAR (May 20, 2026, ticker SPCX Nasdaq). OpenAI confidential S-1 Jun 8 2026 at ~$852B. Anthropic S-1 at $965B valuation, targeting Oct 2026 IPO window. 3 mega-IPOs already in motion — Dalio's trigger is now real, not theoretical.
- GMO 3Q 2026 letter: supply, not demand, breaks the AI bubbleInker/Pease argue each 1% rise in equity supply = 4% market-value drop over 12 months. Anthropic + OpenAI IPOs alone = ~5% of US investable market cap. Expects ~20% relative return drag over 12-18 months.
- Burry: 2027 puts, base case moved upPer Oct 4 Cryptobriefing, Burry swapped short positions for put options on Micron and Nebius expiring in 2027, citing debt-fueled AI spending. Earlier Aug 13 post said base case 2028.
- AI Bubble Tracker v1 launched11 named sources + 5 triggers configured. Daily cron + weekly HTML rebuild armed.